Bureaucratic and Cognitive Approaches Flashcards
When did behavioral sciences boom and why?
1950s and 1960s
subsidizing of universities, more faculties, papers, etc.
How do decision-makers deal with new information?
Decision-makers have preexisting theories based on formative experience, they fit incoming information into existing theories and images
- as soon as people identify how incoming information reinforces their own pre-existing beliefs, they stop considering it further
- attach more importance to info that reinforces what we expect
What is confirmation bias?
people search for, and are predisposed to believe, information that supports their biases and assumptions
people often hold consistent beliefs that are ___________, making us ____________
are not logically linked, making us psychologically comfortable
What is the conventional understanding of policy making?
- monoliths perform large actions for big reasons
- decisions are based on rationality, perspective, experience
Who is one of the biggest political scientists for the cuabn missile crisis?
graham Allison
Does Allison agree with the conventional understanding of policy making?
No, says it is more haphazard because large organizations and diverse political actors with different perspectives are involved
Graham Allison argues that decision-making structure is _______
no “black-box”, it’s highly differentiated because of different opinions, motives and goals
In what year was the cuban missile crisis?
1962
During the cuban missile crisis what shaped US policy makers’ decisions?
delays in obtaining intelligence, incomplete information, and turf wars
Does US decision making in the cuban missile crisis support the conventional wisdom?
No, it was much more random
What are some examples of US indecision during the cuban missile crisis?
- US lost precious time as CIA and Air Fore bickered over who would pilot a U-2 reconnaissance plane
- navy disregarded President’s order of where to impose blockade (was more provocative to Soviet Union than Kennedy wanted)
How did the Cuban Missile Crisis end?
27 Oct 1962:
-Soviet Premier Khrushchev demands US remove missiles in Turkey in exchange for dismantling cuban missiles
-US air force U-2 spy plane is shot down over Cuba-war seems likely
-JFK sends Khrushchev a letter of offering to lift blockade and not invade if missiles are removed
-agrees to withdraw US missiles in Turkey at a later date
28 Oct
-crisis ended
20 Dec:
-USSR removes the missiles, US ends the blockade
In US, what prevented a streamlined flow of “rational” decisions?
-decision-making chain from State Dept. to military to President and advisors
What were some alternate options of the cuban missile crisis?
-surgical air strikes, could have launched a full-scale war
