Flashcards in Voting behaviour + Parties Deck (49)
How does the Electoral College system discriminate against third parties? What's an exception?
It does not allow for coalitions. Votes for minor parties are wasted - unless they have a regional concentration, e.g. George Wallace, American Independent Party - 45 electoral votes in 1968 w/13% of the vote.
How does ballot access discriminate against third parties? How is Alabama harsh?
Some states have very strict ballot access (requirements to have your name on the ballot. In Alabama, in you need 3% of the vote in the previous election to that office in valid signatures on petition.
To achieve matching federal funds under law, how much of the popular vote does a party need in the last election cycle? What emphasises how a party has never done this?
25% of the popular vote, e.g. Ross Perot in 1992 only got 19%.
How do Presidential debating rules discriminate against smaller parties?
Presidential debating rules are administered by a bipartisan commission rather than a non-partisan one. For example, Ralph Nader (Green Party) was not allowed in the 2000 debates.
How much of popular vote did third parties get in 2012? What about 4 years later?
Why did it rise in 2016?
2012 = 2%; 2016 = 6%.
Trump took Republicans further to the right, so more people wanted a centre-ground. Plus, Hilary had used her family's private email server for official, sometimes secret, communications rather than using State Department Email Accounts.
Given 2016 disillusionment, where would the votes have gone?
Who are the 2 Independent Senators? Who are they allies of?
Disillusioned Republicans would vote for the Libertarian Party, and disillusioned Democrats would vote for the Green Party.
Bernie Sanders and Angus King; the Democratic Party.
How many independents in the HOR? In state legislatures?
HOR = Gregorio Sablan; 31 in state legislatures.
What killed the Republicans for a while?
What killed the Democrats? How did Reagan respond?
The Watergate Scandal (1974).
In 1979-81, US hostages were held by Iranian Revolutionaries for two years. This brought Democrat integrity into question - Carter failed to act militarily.
In his first week as President, Reagan emphasised USA's military might that would crush any country who went against them...thus Iran freed hostages, and Republicans got a major victory.
Since when have the Republican party leaders lost control of presidential candidate selection? Who chooses them now?
What's an example of party leaders v the people?
1972; registered Republican voters.
In 2016, senior figures in the Republican party were against his selection, as they thought no more voters who sway between D + R would like Trump's rhetoric.
What's an example of party leaders v the people in terms of the Democrats?
Sanders was popular with younger voters in 2016 - but this annoyed the Democratic leadership, who wanted Clinton. Sanders also called himself a socialist - but this makes American candidates unelectable.
What has replaced party rallies in terms of politicians communicating with voters?
TV / online - but arguably Trump has revived this method (did 323 in 2016).
Name 2 pro-Democrat pressure groups.
Name 2 pro-Republican.
Democrat = American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) - pro-Democrat; Planned Parenthood Federation of America (want abortion rights).
Republican = Christian Coalition (anti-abortion); NRA.
What are the two biggest anti-abortion groups in the US?
What issue severely divides Ds + Rs, instead of the UK?
Southern Baptists + Roman Catholics.
The environment - (Lab + Tor had stuff 2dow/environ in 2017 manifestos) in 2016, the Republicans opposed any carbon tax, while the Democrats wanted to reduce greenhouse gases more than 80% below 2005 levels by 2050.
Who did Hispanics tend to vote for, despite their Catholicism? Why?
What factor in voting is more significant than in the UK? Give an example.
Democrats, as they get a larger share of gov benefits as they tend to be poorer.
Gender - the 'gender gap' was evident in 2016. 52% men voted Trump, 41% women; 54% of women voted Trump, 41% of men.
What has been the ideological pattern of the Democrats over the years? (5 things).
What % of Liberal voters voted Democrat in 2016?
Pro-choice, pro gay rights, state-run schools, pro gun-control, and 'big government' via regulations.
Which Democrat voters are more likely to be conservative?
Why has the number of moderate Democrats decreased?
Despite liberal democrats being more likely to back Bernie in 2016, what happened? What did this reveal the Democrat primaries to be about?
Democrats living in the South + Mid-West.
Collective exit pools revealed these LDs to prefer Clinton over Sanders by 7%. Opinion was thus less split on ideology, but more on favouring establishment/anti-establishment.
What has the ideological pattern of the Republicans been over the years (6 things),
What % of conservative voters voted Republican 2016?
Cutting taxes, opposing abortion rights, the free market, increasing defence spending, anti-free healthcare, pro-guns.
What Republicans are more moderate? Yet, what other Republicans are also moderate on certain things?
When did Republicans adopt the 'Christian Right'?
Those living in the Northeast. But, the Christian Right are moderate on economy but conservative on abortion.
During the Reagan era, and these beliefs are still in the party today.
What group did 'fiscal conservatives' join? What do they believe in?
What did George W. Bush's 'compassionate conservatism' entail? What happened after 9/11?
Fiscal conservatives joined the 'Tea Party' movement to fight for reduction in tax + gov spending.
Compassionate conservatism entailed traditional conservative beliefs to help the poorer. But, after 9/11 he went much further to the right socially and economically.
What was different about the Republican 2016 primaries? What did Trump oppose? What did he support? Thus, why was Trump elected?
It was not based on ideology.
Trump did not align with NR conservatives like Cruz - opposed Republican support for Wall Street financiers.
But, he was not liberal like Mitt Romney - he supported appointing conservative judges to the Supreme Court.
He was elected because of support of what he was NOT - a politician. He was anti-establishment.
What 3 things do Republicans + Tories agree on (everything else is pretty different)?
What are Protestants linked to?
Defence spending, tough on crime, anti-high taxes.
The religious right and the Bible belt - a line of Southern states from south and central Virginia to Texas.
How much support have Protestants given to Republicans in the last 5 elections?
54-59% of the Republican vote - they're a staple support group.
Who did Catholics used to vote for? What has changed since the 1970s?
They used to vote Democrat, with their ties to Irish Catholics in the past (immigrants). But, Catholic support has wavered since the latter's support of abortion.
In 2016 how many Catholics voted Democrat?
What could explain the huge gender gap in voting in 2016?
Just a month before Election Day, a video showed Trump bragging about kissing and groping women in vulgar terms.
In the last 10 presidential elections, what has African-American support been for the Democrats? What was it for Obama in 2008? What did this decrease to for Clinton?
Who are a growing racial group, and what did Bush's campaign in 2000 do for their votes?
Never under 83%; 95% in 2008; 89% in 2016.
Hispanics; Bush's pitch to them meant that the Republican vote among Hispanics increased by 23% from 1996-2004.
Who were the Reagan Democrats in the 80s? Where did there support go after George H. W. Bush's (Republican) election in 1989?
White, working-class, blue-collar voters who lived in the Rust-Belt. (Pennsylvania, Ohio + West Virginia). Their votes returned to the Democrats.
Where did Trump win the rust belt state? Why? What about Clinton?
Won 7 out of 9 - promised curbing illegal immigration, bringing home American jobs + restoring national pride.
Clinton failed to resonate with these voters - only 23% of white non-college men voted for her.
In 2016, which Northeastern states did the Democrats win? What did Trump manage to do here?
All bar Pennsylvania - thus, Trump broke through the 'Blue Wall' in the upper midwest and Northeast by taking Pennsylvania and Michigan.
In 2012 and 2016, what Southern states did the Republicans win back from Obama?
Mitt Romney won back North Carolina in 2012; in 2016, Florida was taken by Trump. Thus, Republicans had all but one Southern state (Virginia).