POS L3 The ideal of positive science (2)

Question 1

The standard view

Answer 1

• theories that cannot be reduced to observations with logic are allowed
• induction is allowed (individual statements are true and empirical laws are likely to be true)

Question 2

how are empirical laws made?

Answer 2

• set amount of observations
• try to come to a general statement
• set an empirical law

–> this law is likely to be true but you can’t say it with certainty

Question 3

The model of empirical cycles aka the hypothetical-deductive method

Answer 3

Observations–>(generalization)–>Empirical Laws–> Theory–> New Hypothesis–>(testing hypothesis)–> Observations–> Empirical Laws

Question 4

Induction

Answer 4

Observations-> Empirical laws-> Theory

Question 5

Deduction

Answer 5

Theory–> New Hypothesis–> Observations

Question 6

theoretical language

Answer 6

• we cannot reduce theoretical language to observations

Question 7

observational language

Answer 7

• you can describe everything that you can observe

empirical laws, new hypothesis

Question 8

Truth and truth likeliness

Answer 8

• observations are always true

- empirical laws and testing hypothesis is likely to be true

Question 9

Critical Rationalism

Answer 9

• founder is Karl Popper
• criticized the standard view and logical positivism
• said that the problems of logical positivism were too fundamental to make adequate adjustments.

Question 10

How should the truth be found according to Popper?

Answer 10

• not through verification (standard view of science)

- knowledge should be accumulated by trial and error

Question 11

Why is the revised model not correct according to Popper?

Answer 11

• theory dependent search light theory

- the problem of induction

Question 12

Search light theory

Answer 12

• an observation is always dependent on a theory
• we cannot observe everything at the same time and therefore look at things subjectively, relying on things we already know.

Question 13

Problem of induction after Popper

Answer 13

• even worse then search light hypothesis
• he says that the induction approach we use in the adjusted L.P. is wrong. We look at the likelihood that a general statement is true, however, the likelihood should always be zero.
• the basic theory is already wrong, because you do not consider all possible situations

Question 14

Three problems that contribute to the problem of induction according to Popper

Answer 14

• degree of confirmation will be be close to zero
• trying to achieve the highest degree of likelihood will make theories useless in practice
  (likelihood to be true and empirical evidence have a negative correlation)
• induction is a fundamental problem: the amount of observations is endless –> no 100% certainty

Question 15

degree of confirmation (probability) will be be close to zero

Answer 15

• the degree of confirmation assesses to what extent a theory is supported by empirical evidence

Degree of confirmation = # observations of X / all possible cases of X

• according to Popper possible cases are endless leading to equation to equal zero

Question 16

Poppers view within critical rationalism

Answer 16

• rationalism: we should be as precise about reality as possible –> high likelihood that these theories are false
• but when true they tell us a lot about reality
• critical aspect: the likelihood of a theory being true gets higher the more often it is tried to be invalidated

Question 17

What does Popper believe in?

Answer 17

He believes in falsification instead of verification

Question 18

Problems with logical positivism

Answer 18

• theoretical concept

- induction problem

Question 19

theoretical concept

Answer 19

logical positivism says that we have to be able to reduce every theory back to observations through logic. However, that is often not possible. According to logical positivism we should therefore dismiss the theory. But that is not possible in reality. (We cannot just say that for example a theory in physics is untrue)

• theoretical concepts like democracy are normatively infected. (It is about how we think the world should be; this does not go back to observations)

Question 20

Examples of certain concepts in very successful field of science that cannot be reduced to observations alone

Answer 20

• force in physics
• consciousness in psychology
• democracy in political science
• firm performance in strategic management

–> difficult for us to find an observation they are based on

Question 21

Two types of meaning of concepts

Answer 21

Intension

Extension

Question 22

Intension

Answer 22

(theoretical meaning): the conjunction of general properties that together define a concept

(imagine the overlap of three circles with the properties small, glass, round –> marble)

Question 23

Extension

Answer 23

(empirical meaning): the set of all (real-life) phenomena that the concept refers to

(has to exist in reality)

Question 24

A well defined concept of X

Answer 24

• based on solid theoretical arguments that explain the intension of X
• denotes all cases of X in reality

Question 25

What structure do concepts in social science have?

Answer 25

complex structure which are multi-dimensional

Question 26

reflective concepts

Answer 26

causality goes from the center to the outside properties
(Firm performance; and profit, growth etc.)
Disease symptom model

Question 27

formative concepts

Answer 27

properties make up the concept

Rule of law, Free elections… –> Democracy

Question 28

The pragmatic concession towards logical positivism (revision of logical positivism)

Answer 28

• we allow theoretical concepts which are normatively infected
  (we need them to create scientific knowledge and bring it further)

Question 29

Two conditions to allow theoretical concepts in a system of knowledge

Answer 29

1. These concepts explain something in the facts that is not apparent from observations alone (not just X–>Y but also why X–>Y)
2. The use of these concepts leads to the development of new knowledge (i.e. new hypotheses) to be tested

Question 30

What does the acceptability of a theoretical concept depend on ?

Answer 30

Its explanatory powers

Question 31

Are concepts theories themselves?

Answer 31

Yes. We need to explain their structure in terms of the causally relevant explanatory properties

Question 32

Adjustment of the L.P. model

Answer 32

• Allow theoretical concepts in the system of knowledge
  (distinction btw. theoretical and observational language should be made in the system of knowledge)
• Allow induction in the system of knowledge
  (we have to say what the likelihood is that the statement is true)

Question 33

theoretical language

Answer 33

• not everything can be reduced back to observations

Question 34

observational language

Answer 34

• everything can be reduced back to observations

Question 35

How to we develop/ accumulate knowledge?

Answer 35

By going around the model of the empirical cycle. This is basically a combination of induction and deduction using the adjustment of the L.P. model with theoretical concepts and induction.

Question 36

Does Poppers model extend beyond theory of science?

Answer 36

Yes also into Politics

Question 37

Which statement has the highest likelihood to be true?

Answer 37

With the least amount of empirical content. Not the most general

Question 38

What does science strive for

Answer 38

For statements with the highest amount of empirical content.