L 6 - 7 Flashcards
when is an inference called inductive inference?
- premises include a generalisation of a sampled population
- conclusion is a projection about the non-sailed population
when is an argument inductively forceful?
- the argument isn’t deductively valid
- if the premises are taken as true it is more reasonable do believe the conclusion as true rather than false
whats the probability measure?
rational degrees of expectation
who introduced the use of number as a measure of probability?
Andrey kolmogorov
from what number to what number do rational degrees of expectation vary?
0 to 1
what does 1 represent
rational certainty of truth
what does 0 represent
rational certainty of falsehood
when is an argument inductively forceful using rational degrees of expectation?
when the conditional probability of the conclusion is greater than 0.5
differences between inductive force and validity
inductive force:
-matter of degree
-primary logical norm to use inductive standard
-is a matter of content (representative sample)
validity:
- not a matter od degree
- primari logical norm for deductive standard
- not a matter of content
3 ways to explain probability
- proportions
- frequency
- degrees of rational expectation
define probability
expectation of an outcome
whats a crucial factor in calculating probability? give an example
are events independent or not (cards, toss a coin)
what is the gambler fallacy? + example
thinking that events are dependent when they aren’t eg toss a coin
can the probability of a conjunction be higher of either of the conjuncts?
no.
how do you calculate the probability of a conjunction?
multiplying the conjuncts
