Inductive Fallacies

Question 1

The Conjunction Fallacy

Answer 1

The propositions of A & B is less likely to be true than either A or B on their own, as another condition has been added to the argument

Question 2

Gambler’s Fallacy

Answer 2

Believing that probabilities that are dependent when they are in fact independent, eg: I’ve always had bad luck, things have got to get better

Question 3

Estimating Coincidences

Answer 3

People are prone to underestimate coincidences, eg: out of a group of 10, 5 of us have the same shoe size, that does not mean in a group of 30, 15 of us will have the same shoe size

Question 4

Generalising from an unrepresentative sample

Answer 4

The only safe way of obtaining a representative sample is through ‘randomistaion’

Question 5

Self-selecting polls

Answer 5

Polls which only volunteers take part in are unrepresentative of the population

Question 6

Base-rate fallacy

Answer 6

When estimating the probability of P you have to take into account the probability of P on its own before considering the evidence given

Question 7

Confusing Correlation with Causation

Answer 7

The fact that P and Q are correlated does not mean that P causes Q, eg: all lawyers are very smart => being a lawyer makes you smart

Question 8

Confirmation Bias

Answer 8

If w have a hypothesis we tend to focus on evidence that confirms it and ignore the evidence that goes against it