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L3 17 Capital Market Expectations > h demonstrate the use of the Taylor rule to predict central bank behavior; > Flashcards

h demonstrate the use of the Taylor rule to predict central bank behavior; Flashcards

L3 17 Capital Market Expectations (18 decks)

a discuss the role of, and a framework for, capital market expectations in the portfolio management process;

b discuss challenges in developing capital market forecasts;

c demonstrate the application of formal tools for setting capital market expectations, including statistical tools, discounted cash flow models, the risk premium approach, and financial equilibrium models;

d explain the use of survey and panel methods and judgment in setting capital market expectations;

e discuss the inventory and business cycles, the impact of consumer and business spending, and monetary and fiscal policy on the business cycle;

f discuss the impact that the phases of the business cycle have on short- term/ long- term capital market returns;

g explain the relationship of inflation to the business cycle and the implications of inflation for cash, bonds, equity, and real estate returns;

h demonstrate the use of the Taylor rule to predict central bank behavior;

i evaluate 1) the shape of the yield curve as an economic predictor and 2) the relationship between the yield curve and fiscal and monetary policy;

j identify and interpret the components of economic growth trends and demonstrate the application of economic growth trend analysis to the formulation of capital market expectations;

k explain how exogenous shocks may affect economic growth trends;

l identify and interpret macroeconomic, interest rate, and exchange rate linkages between economies;

m discuss the risks faced by investors in emerging- market securities and the country risk analysis techniques used to evaluate emerging market economies;

n compare the major approaches to economic forecasting;

o demonstrate the use of economic information in forecasting asset class returns;

p evaluate how economic and competitive factors affect investment markets, sectors, and specific securities;

q discuss the relative advantages and limitations of the major approaches to forecasting exchange rates;

r recommend and justify changes in the component weights of a global investment portfolio based on trends and expected changes in macroeconomic factors.

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