Bacon Metaphor
for it neither relies solely or chiefly on the powers of the mind, nor does it take the matter which it gathers from natural history and mechanical experiments and lay it up in the memory whole, as it finds it, but lays it up in the understanding altered and digested
Strategic Vision
An ambitious image of a future state that is radically preferable to the current state, according to those who develop it.
Strategic Vision
It is a box that becomes a reference for a company, and thus serves as a guide allowing each employee to approach work more effectively.
The role of the CEO is to answer two big questions:
What is the next big thing?
When is the next big thing
Any CEO facing competition and uncertainty will go into this process
While going through this process, CEO choses a scenario, making simplification, which has a specific name:
Strategic Vision
Thinking
Thinking is like an interaction between the world and yourself, with some rules
Using simplifications: DEDUCTION
Simplifying: INDUCTION
Thinking 2
organizing facts, data, and observations from the world infront of you by introducing connecting links and then using this information
A MENTAL MODEL (a box)
is a construction that exists in your mind, in which the reality in front of you is simplified in order to be apprehended in a useful way, according to a given objective. It is an abstraction from the present and, sometimes, a base to build the future
Deduction
is a form of thinking involving the application of an existing box, such as a framework, to details observed in the world in front of you, testing the box’s capacity to interpret them
Induction
is a form of thinking involving moving from fragmentary details (particulars) observed in the world in front of you to a connected view of a situation, a binding principle, which eventually forms a theory, a working hypothesis, a box.
Formal Group
Defined by the organization’s structure with designated work assignments establishing tasks
Informal Group
Alliances that are neither formally structured nor organizationally determined
Appear naturally in response to the need for social contact
Deeply affect behavior and performance
Heuristics
Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.
Overconfidence Bias
Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance.
Immediate Gratification Bias
Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.
Anchoring Effect
Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.
Selective Perception Bias
Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions.
Confirmation Bias
Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.
Framing Bias
Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.
Availability Bias
Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.
Representation Bias
Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.
Randomness Bias
Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.
Sunk Costs Errors
Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.
Self-Serving Bias
Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.
Hindsight Bias
Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).
Critical thinkers use theories to explain how the mind works. Then they apply these theories to the way they live every day:
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Ego
This is self-centered thinking and includes self-interested thinking and self-serving bias.
It is when it can be hard to see beyond how a particular issue or problem affects you personally
Group think
This is group-centered thinking and is when we tend to want to conform to what others think and as a result we suffer from group bias.
Assumptions
These are our beliefs that we hold to be true without sufficient evidence or justification for holding these ideas.
This also includes what we call stereotyping or thinking that because one person or idea is a certain way that all such people or ideas are the same…
Wishful thinking
Believing that something is true simply because deep down we wish it were true.
Relativism
The way we can dismiss an idea because the truth “is just a matter of opinion.”
This can be because the truth is different from what we “know” to be true or because the new truth is outside of our own experience or culture.
This can also be expressed as a fear of change.
Poor communication
This is when you either are incapable or choose not to communicate with all key stakeholders who will be affected by a decision.
This likely means you don’t have all the information you could have to critically think ahead of making a good decisions
So how do we avoid these pitfalls to critical thinking?
We start to consciously think about our own thinking habits.
We understand that we are thinking critically when we recognize emotional impulses, selfish motives, nefarious purposes, or other modes of self-deception.
That is when we recognize our own assumptions, prejudices, biases or point of view.