Chapter 4

Question 1

Types of claim conflicts

Answer 1

1. Conflicts with observations

2. Conflicts with background information

Question 2

Example of conflicts with background information

Answer 2

“Baby bench-presses 500 Ib” - our background information tells us that babies are weak (what we know, experienced)

Question 3

Examples of conflicts with observations

Answer 3

If a news report says a building is demolished, you can go see for yourself

Question 4

If claim conflicts with out background information, we have good reason to doubt it?

Answer 4

Yes - conflicts with background information

Question 5

What is background information

Answer 5

• Facts about everyday things - “The sky is blue”
• Beliefs based on very good evidence - “Cigs are bad for you”
• Justified claims in regards to common sense

Question 6

Is doubting a claim with conflicting background information the same thing as saying it is “false”

Answer 6

NO - But it is a reason to explore further

Question 7

How to determine claims w/ conflicting background info?

Answer 7

It is a judgement call

- the more background information the claim conflicts with, the more reason we have to doubt it

Question 8

Is common sense always right?

Answer 8

No!

Example: Many people believe that shark attacks are common

Example: Animals don’t feel pain

Question 9

Rule about proportioning our beliefs?

Answer 9

We should proportion our belief to the evidence

Question 10

Suspension of judgement

Answer 10

Its not reasonable to believe a claim when there is no good reason for doing so.

-> Believing should not be your “default” setting

Question 11

If a claim conflicts with expert opinion, we have good reason to doubt it. True or false?

Answer 11

True.

Question 12

When experts show significant disagreement over a claim, we have good reason to doubt it. True or false?

Answer 12

True.

Question 13

Who is an expert?

Answer 13

Someone who is more knowledgable in a particular subject than other people.

Ex. Mechanic is an expert in car repair

Question 14

What good is an expert?

Answer 14

Because they have more information than we do on specific subjects

Question 15

Is it OK to rely on experts?

Answer 15

Sometime expert opinion is all we have to go on.

Eg. in a medical emergency, taking Dr.’s advice

Question 16

Appeal to authority

Answer 16

When we accept a claim from someone deemed to be an expert who in fact is not an expert.

Question 17

To be considered an expert the must:

Answer 17

1. have shown that they can assess relevant evidence/arguments
2. The can do their work in an unbiased way

Question 18

Indicators of expertise

Answer 18

1. Education/training
2. Experience making reliable judgements
3. Reputation among peers
4. Professional accomplishments

These are NOT GUARANTEES

Question 19

Conflict of Interest

Answer 19

When someone a person in a position of responsibility abuses his or her authority for personal gain

Question 20

Personal experience and claims

Answer 20

We accept many claims based on personal experiences - our own and others

Question 21

Factors that give good reason to doubt the reliability of personal experience

Answer 21

1. Impairment
2. Expectation
3. Innumeracy

Question 22

Impairment - definition

Answer 22

Too dark, too light, too noisy etc.
Senses can be tricked (drunk, tired, injured)
Memory can be very unreliable
Perceptions are constructed by the brain (rather than recorded)

Question 23

Expectation - definition

Answer 23

Scientists work hard to make sure this doesnt’ happen (experiments etc.)

Question 24

Innumeracy - defintion

Answer 24

“Being really bad with numbers”

Ex. Estimates of probability ( we are bad with this)

Question 25

Misjudging coincidence

Answer 25

A common error in Innumeracy - we often believe that an event is too improbable (too unlikely) to be a mere coincidence.

Question 26

Tools to aid with Innumeracy

Answer 26

• Calculators

- Statistical theory

Question 27

Innumeracy and gambling

Answer 27

“Gambler’s fallacy”:

To think that a string of random events (such as coin tosses) can influence the probabilities in the random event at hand

Question 28

Critical thinking and probabilities?

Answer 28

Good critical thinkers know about probabilities.

We should not rely on intuitive sense of evaluating probabilities alone. (ie. Gut feeling)

Question 29

Other innumeracy issues?

Answer 29

1. “Guesstimating” big numbers (how heavy is the earth?)