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Flashcards in CAP Bayesian Networks and Decision Deck (12)
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1
Q

Bayes’ Theorem

A

P(A|B) = P(B)P(B|A)/P(A); posterior equals prior times likelihood over marginal

2
Q

Bayesian Network

A

a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph

3
Q

Decision analysis

A

a quantitative method which permits the systematic evaluation of the costs and/or benefits accruing to courses of action that might be taken in a complex problem

4
Q

Decision matrix

A

a list of values in rows and columns that allows an analyst to systematically identify, analyze, and rate the performance of relationships between sets of values and information

5
Q

Decision making under certainty

A

Using the state of nature to determine which outcome in the decision matrix is best for that state of nature, then deciding in order to achieve that outcome

6
Q

Maximax return

A

Optimistic decision making; choose the best possible outcome for each decision, then choose the best result from that group

7
Q

Maximin return

A

Pessimistic decision making; choose the worst possible outcome for each decision, then choose the best result from that group

8
Q

Minimax Regret

A

Decision making based on potential loss from best outcome; subtract each outcome from the best outcome possible for that decision, then choose the result with the smallest different/regret

9
Q

Decision tree

A

A way to structure multi-stage decision problems that allows us to identify courses of action, consider probability of multiple different states of nature, assess outcomes, and select the best alternative

10
Q

Expected value of decision tree

A

Method for using decision trees that calculates the sum of the products of the probabilities and outcome values

11
Q

Value focused thinking

A

Method for making decisions that focuses first on articulating values, then applying values to quantification of objectives

12
Q

Pareto efficient frontier

A

The set of all resource allocations such that it is impossible to make one preference criterion better without making at least one preference criterion worse