AI Risk premiums in commodities future markets Flashcards

1
Q

Key differences btw. futures contracts and stocks/bonds?

A

future contracts are derivatives (written on real assets). Stocks are financial assets.

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2
Q

Are commodity future markets an attractive asset class to stock/bonds?

A

-yes they provide diversification

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3
Q

Theory of Normal Backwardation

A

Keynes and Hicks

  • future price will be on average below expected future spot price
  • selling pressure by short hedgers provides premium to speculators
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4
Q

Implications of the Theory of Normal Backwardation

A
  • Commodity futures prices will on average rise over the lifetime of their contract
    (this is because at the beginning they are cheaper and they converge to the spot price which does not really change)
  • Hedgers are net short (hedging on a short outnumbers hedging on a long)
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5
Q

Forward contract

A

obligation for both parties on a transaction in the future

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6
Q

Hedging pressure

A

idiosyncratic risk (specific risk)

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7
Q

Are hedgers net short?

A

Yes on average (consistent with theory of normal backwardation) but large SD, times when net long

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8
Q

What Is a Non-Marketable Security?

A

A non-marketable security is typically a debt security that is difficult to buy or sell due to the fact that they are not traded on any major secondary market exchanges.

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9
Q

According to the theory of normal backwardation, what would the risk premium be when beta of the underlying commodity is zero (absence of the systematic risk)?

A

The risk premium should be zero to0 and the futures price is the same as the expected future spot price. The futures spot price normally is lower only because the speculator wants a risk compensation for being exposed to the systematic risk (beta of the security)

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10
Q

What is the Fama-MacBeth regression?

A

a cross-sectional regression

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11
Q

What is a cross-sectional regression?

A

In statistics and econometrics, a cross-sectional regression is a type of regression in which the explained and explanatory variables are all associated with the same single period or point in time.

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12
Q

What did Fama-MacBeth find out?

A

In hedging pressure neither systematic nor idiosyncratic risk is priced –> inconsistent with the theory of normal backwardation

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13
Q

Conclusion on the theory of normal backwardation

A
  • weak empirical support for theory of normal backwardation
    (weak evidence that on average future prices deliver positive returns)
  • no clear pattern of profits accumulated by speculators
  • hedging pressure does not seem to be related to the size of the risk premium
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14
Q

Theory of Storage

A
  • links commodity prices through storage decisions (cost-of-carry)
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15
Q

What is the cost of storage?

A
  • interest costs and warehousing
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16
Q

convenience yield

A

marginal benefit to inventory holder

17
Q

What is the Basis in the theory of storage?

A

Ft-St (F is futures price, S is spot price)

18
Q

What does a negative basis imply?

A

backwardation (Ft

19
Q

What does a positive basis imply?

A

con tango (Ft>St)

20
Q

What are the forces that drive a forward price up or down in the theory of storage?

A

Drive up:
- interest rate (risk free rate) can be seen as the time value of money
- storage cost of the asset
Drive down:
- income or dividend (ownership of holding the asset)
- convenience yield (compounds anything not included in the other factors which are positive to hold the asset)

21
Q

What is a Convenience Yield?

A

A convenience yield is the benefit or premium associated with holding an underlying product or physical good, rather than the associated derivative security or contract.

  • marginal benefit to inventory holder
  • explains why stocks are held when prices are expected to fall
  • convenience yield is declining function of inventory
  • low inventory (risk of stock-out) there is a high convenience yield, high volatility of futures prices
22
Q

Example Convenience Yield

A

Consider purchasing physical bales of wheat rather than wheat future contracts. If there’s a sudden drought, and the need for wheat increases, the difference between the first purchase price of the wheat versus the price after the shock would be the convenience yield.

23
Q

Which relationship exists btw. inventories and convenience yields?

A

Negative relation between inventories and convenience yield

24
Q

In what can the premier be decomposed?

A

spot and term

25
Q

spot

A

underlying commodity price risk (demand/supply factors)

26
Q

term

A

e.g. convenience yield risk

27
Q

spot premium

A

long position in a short-term futures contract

28
Q

term premium

A

spreading strategies combining a long position in an n-period futures contract with a short position in an m-period futures contract on the same underlying commodity

29
Q

short roll

A

multiperiod long positions in the short-term contracts

30
Q

excess holding

A

long position in long-term bond and short position in short-term contracts rolled over to maturity of the long-term bond

31
Q

Can futures prices vary?

A

Yes, because convenience yield and discount rates both vary

32
Q

The basis for futures contracts has the same function as?

A

dividend yield for stocks.

33
Q

Which commodities have the highest average returns?

A

those with the lowest basis (low forward price) (because of highest convenience yield which lowers the forward price)

  • not sure about this
34
Q

What drives commodity futures risk premier?

A
  • Theory of Normal Backwardation (hedging/ speculating pressure)
  • Theory of Storage (convenience yield)
  • Modern Asset Pricing Theory
    (systematic risk, basis risk)