8.2 problem solving, decision making and judgment Flashcards
algorithm
a slow logical and step by step solution to a problem based on a set of rules
heuristics
relying on past experience to make a quick and reasonable guess as to the problems solution
it may not work bc every situation is a bit different but they offer quick solutions
cognitive obstacles
obstacles that prevents us from finding the correct strategy
the nine dot problem
(think outside the box)
functional fixedness
the tendency to treat objects as only serving one function
two string problem
judgement and decision making also rely on
algorithms and heuristics
forming judgments by algorithm is
hard work and time consuming
using a heuristic to form a judgment is
quicker , but requires a good basis for guessing
representativeness heuristic
the assumption that all members of a category share the same features based on ones experience with only a small number of category members
judging chief Wiggum as representative of police officers as a group would be unfair
the case of linda
linda is 31 years old, single outspoken and very bright, she majored in philosophy, as a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations
which is more likely?
a)linda is a bank teller
b)linda is a bank tell and is active in the feminist movement
80% choose B
Whats more likely is actually A
why do people tend to pick B?
bc we tend to be more influenced by the description of Linda’s characteristics than we are by the Base rates
Base rates
the base rat of bank tellers, who are also active in the feminist movement ,must be lower than the total base rate of bank tellers
conjunction fallacy
an error
the failure to appreciate the probability of two events occurring together must be lower than the probability of either of those events occurring alone
the availability heuristic
making judgments about he frequency with which events occur based on how easy it is for us to think of examples
ex.are there more words that start with k or that have k as the 3rd letter?
most ppl state that there are more that start with k because it is easier to think of examples
the correct answer is that there are many more words that have K as the 3rd letter
the anchoring effect
restrictions in a persons numerical judgments based solely on their exposure to some number
the anchoring effect even occurs when the biasing number is completely irrelevant
condition A
is the percentage of countries in the United nations that are from Africa greater or less than 10%? what do you think the exact percentage is ?
average estimate =25%
condition B
is the percentage of countries in the united nations that are from Africa greater or less than 65%? what do you think the exact percentage is?
average estimate=45%
framing effects
when the mere wording of a question has a biasing influence on our judgments or decision making
ex. you are in charge of an African village under threat from a disease
you have 2 vaccines, but you are only allowed to administer one of them
you know from past experience Vaccine A- 200 of the 600 will be saved
vaccine B there is a 33% chance that all 600 villagers will be saved and a 67% chance that none of the villagers will be saved
Most people choose vaccine A
now diff vaccines
vaccine C-400 of 600 will die
vaccine D- 33% chance that none of the 600 villagers will dies and a 67% chance that all the villagers will die
most people choose D
A and C are the same
B and D are the same
whether the scenario emphasizes saving villagers vs. villager deaths determines which vaccine ppl choose
belief perseverance
persisting in ones pre existing beliefs despite exposure to evidence that contradicts those beliefs
once we form a belief is it very difficult to change our mind
