4.2. Demographic transition

Question 1

Demographic Transition

Answer 1

The historical shift of birth and death rates from high to low levels in a population

Question 2

Stage 1 of demographic transition model

Answer 2

• Crude birth rate is high and stable
• Crude death rate is high and fluctuating due to famine, disease and war
• Population growth is very slow
• Infant mortality is high
• Life expectancy is low

Question 3

Stage 2 of demographic transition model

Answer 3

• Death rate declines significantly due to better nutrition, improved public health, clean water supply
• Birth rate remains high as the social norms governing fertility take time to change and children are seen as economic assets
• Rate of natural change increases to a peak at the end of this stage
• Infant mortality falls
• Life expectancy increases

Question 4

Stage 3 of demographic transition model

Answer 4

• Social norms adjust to the lower level of mortality
• Birth rate declines due to improved standards of living, education of women and increased use of contraception. Children are seen as economic liabilities
• Death rate stabilizes at a low level
• Infant mortality decreases
• Life expectancy continues to increase

Question 5

Stage 4 of demographic transition model

Answer 5

• Both birth and death rates are low
• Population growth is slow
• Death rates rise slightly as the average age of population increases
• However, life expectancy still improves as age-specific mortality rates continue to fall

Question 6

Stage 5 of demographic transition model

Answer 6

• Birth rate has fallen below death rate, resulting in natural decrease
• In the absence of net migration inflows, these populations are declining.

Question 7

Criticisms of the demographic transition model

Answer 7

• It is seen as too Eurocentric as it was based on the experience of Western Europe
• Many developing countries may not follow the sequence set out in the model
• Model fails to take in account changes due to migration
• Ignores the differences between regions within a country
• Can’t predict when a country will reach a certain stage or how long it will take to pass through
• Does not take account of the role of governments and policies they may adopt to manage population change
• Cannot predict pandemics or new disease - HIV

Question 8

Summary of demographic transition model

Answer 8

• No model is ever perfect but the DTM still has a useful descriptive purpose. The framework of stages is used to identify where a country ‘sits’ overtime and how it compares to other places
• Model is flexible as it does not define how long it will take for a country to move through the different stages
• Model would be a better predictor of change if factors other than economic development were recognised as influential
• Addition of stage 5 allowed the model to evolve but it still cannot be assumed that all countries will follow the model
• Countries may not necessarily progress smoothly through the model. Periods of standstill can occur and countries can also regress

Question 9

Ageing Population

Answer 9

A population undergoing a rise in its median age. It occurs when fertility declines, while life expectancy remains constant or increases

Question 10

Development

Answer 10

The use of resources to improve the quality of live in a country. This includes wealth, but it also refers to other important aspects of our lives, such as education, health and freedom of expression.

Question 11

Human Development Index (HDI)

Answer 11

A measure of development that combines three important aspects of human well-being: life expectancy, education and income.

Question 12

Link between population and development

Answer 12

• The highest ranking countries according to the HDI are in stage 4 (or 5) of demographic transition, suggesting a very strong link between the rate of population growth and the level of economic development.
• The countries with low human development invariably have high rates of population growth and most are in stage 2 of demographic transition.

Question 13

Merits of the DTM

Answer 13

• Easy to understand
• Universal in concept - can be applied to all countries in the world, even though its application is more valid f or some countries than for others
• Flexible timescales - the speed of modernisation determines how quickly a country moves through stages
• Provides a starting point for the study of demographic change over time
• Enables comparisons to be made between countries